Another good weekend last weekend with a profit of £377.58, so the new year continues to be profitable. My New Years resolution continues with the NAPs now 13 from 23. However, yet again I feel slightly disappointed by the profit. Bolton were the team that let me down this weekend for £1313. I might have to start seriously thinking about backing the banker doubles as Arsenal and Chelsea came in at 4 to 5. The 17/10 Barnsley pick, including naming the scorer, and 13/10 NAP were particular highlights from last week and I will be looking to find more value again this weekend. I did mention new manager syndrome last weekend and seems there might be something in it, Norwich and West Brom (first league game in charge) were both triumphant.
Celebrity Big Brother has provided more entertainment than I thought. Nadia is horrendous and makes my blood boil. Michelle is coming across well and the price of 5.5 is worth taking. I have quite enjoyed this Celebrity Big Brother despite the influx of Americans. I will be paying attention to back and lay in running to optimise value.
So to this weekends football tips…..
Premier League – This one is going to be pretty easy to write this week AVOID!!!!!!!!! Anyone in Last Man Competitions will find it tough to pick any teams this weekend. I fancy quite a few draws in the Premier League this weekend. The best chance of success comes at Upton Park. At 3/4 (Victor) this price is too short and I will be avoiding The Premier League at all costs this weekend.
The Championship – Crucial local derby with Derby taking on Forest. I fear for Pearce's future if he doesn't get anything from the game. The game is a derby so anything can happen. Ipswich are odds against away from home to a woeful Millwall team. They took a battering in the cup, losing 4 nil to Bradford, at 5/4 (Skybet) they look quite good value. Slim pickings so far in the top 2 leagues.
League One – 13/8 (Paddy Power) Fleetwood NAP to beat Oldham seems like a great bet. It will probably be a low scoing affair but I fancy Fleetwood to sneak this and I like the price. Fleetwood have lost only 1 in the last 6 and Oldham have won only 1 in their last 8. Crewe away to Notts County seems good value at 12/5 but when you look into it further County have played 6 teams in the top 8 in their last 6 games. This might be an opportunity for County to get back to winning ways. Maybe a draw might be a good bet. There you go, that's certainly called edging your bets on a game. Enough reason to avoid it but whatever happens I can write the blog next week and say I told you so ;-). The top 2 form teams play each other with Scunthorpe at home to Bristol City. 29/10 (Boyle Sports) for Scunthorpe United is not to be sniffed at. Draw no bet is 7/4 (Boyle Sports). I tend to do OK in picking these sort of value bets but the games have often been ending in draws. Should I go safe and back draw no bet or will I be too tempted with the odds for a home win (see below)?
League Two – It seems like I have some sort of an affiliation with Newport this year. They have served me well and they are playing a team again that I fancy them to get some points from. They are away to Cambridge and the price of 17/10 (Hills) is a price too good to turn my nose up at. Newport are the form team and this price offers splendid value. I did also briefly consider Burton again away to Portsmouth but something inside me was telling me to stay clear. Sometimes we have to trust our gut instinct.
So, not as many games picked this weekend but I don't set out to pick a set amount each week. I just look for the value and teams I think have a good chance of being victorious.
Millwall Vs Ipswich – £50 Ipswich 5/4 (Skybet)
Fleetwood Vs Oldham – £100 Fleetwood (NAP) 13/8 (PaddyPower)
Scunthorpe Vs Bristol City – £50 Scunthorpe 29/10 (Boyle Sports)
Cambridge Vs Newport County – £75 Newport 17/10 (Hills)
As the odds are so good on all the games it is feasible to back doubles (£6 each), trebles (£2.50 each) and the fourfold (£4). If zero come in then I will be £50 down on the acca. If 2 come in I will be at worst about £20 down. Profit shown for three of the 4. The accumulator pays a very credible 57.56 (Boyle Sports). It will be nearly £750 for the accas if/when they all come in (glass half full).
The toughest week this year so far and possibly one of the toughest of the season. Keep fingers and toes crossed.
Good Luck. 🙂