Monthly Archives: December 2014

Sunday 28th betting tips

By | December 27, 2014

Boxing Day saw mixed success with Watford costing me dearly. Not only did they fail to win and cost my single but they reduced my winnings on my lucky 31 to £57 from around £200 had they won. They weren’t the best id seen them, but were unlucky in the end as Wolves should have had a man sent off and Watford also hit the woodwork twice, so the result could have been different. As predicted, Spurs, Man City and Bournemouth all won. Everton were also unlucky against Stoke as they should have been playing 10 men, and the penalty they conceded after this point was very soft. I still think Everton are about to turn the corner, they have too many good players not to push on.
During this festive period the good thing is that the games keep coming, and I’ve got another set of tips for you for the games on the 28th as there is another full fixture list. In the Premier League there are a couple games I like the look of but have only gone for one. QPR are 16/11 to beat the managerless Crystal Palace. QPR’s home form has been great of late, and they have won for me in the past, but I also think that Palace are a threat away from home with players like Bolasie and Puncheon on the break, as a result im leaving this for today but still think QPR are a decent bet if you fancy it. Today’s longshot is West Ham. I have been impressed with them this season and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games, drawing the other against Man City. I have the feeling Allardyce really fancies an upset here, and with Arsenals defensive woes and injury list, I have a feeling they will upset the odds here. West Ham are 5/2 to win this and double chance is 4/6 which is safer and also a great bet. I will have a little dabble on the 5/2 as a hunch more than anything, but will leave it out of the 5 fold due to it being a little risky.
West Ham to beat Arsenal £25 5-2 Paddypower/Bet365
In the Championship i'm very much going with the form teams. Bournemouth have been flying over the last few weeks and are currently top of the league. They travel to lowly Millwall who got battered 6-1 on boxing day and must be very low on confidence. Although Bournemouth are away, that didn’t matter when they defeated Blackpool 6-1 at Bloomfield Road in their last away game. At 19/20 this is really good odds and makes the first part of this game weeks 5 fold and lucky 31. My bet of the day in the championship is Norwich. We know they have an excellent squad, having retained many of their Premier League players and also bolstering the team with the additions of Jerome and Cuellar to name but 2. They have won their last 2 home games scoring 11 in the process, and also come off the back of an away win at Wigan and a draw at Derby, where they were the better team. Tomorrow they face a Reading team that is sat 17th in the league and who have lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 home games. Norwich are 6/5 to win this, and I will also add this to the accy and lucky 31.

Norwich to beat Reading £50 win @ 6/5 with William Hill

I have chosen 2 games from league 1 this week. MK Dons are very much the form team in the division. They have closed the gap on the leaders Bristol City over the last few weeks and I feel they will be right up there this season. Tomorrow they face Walsall on the back of an 9 game unbeaten run in the league where they have won 7. Walsall are a typical mid-table team that can cause the odd upset, but I believe MK dons will win this. They are only 4-6 so I won’t be having this as a single, but will add it to the accy and Lucky 31. The second game in league 1 to get added to my accy and Lucky 31 is Preston. Preston can’t stop winning at the moment and they travel to bottom of the table Crewe. They are only 3/4, but I’m sure they will win this, and make that extra addition to my 5 fold. Preston have won 5 from their last 6 and I think they will win again here.
League 2 sees my bet of the day. Luton have already cleaned up for me a few times this season and I’ve been waiting for their next home game! They are entertaining Pompey tomorrow and are still a great price at 21/20, despite having won 8 on the bounce at home stretching back to the beginning of October. Portsmouth lye 15th in the league having lost 5 and drawn 1 of their last 6 away from home. This has to be the ultimate no brainer!
Luton Town to beat Portsmouth £75 @ 21/20 with William Hill
5-fold accy Norwich, Bournemouth, MK Dons, Preston and Luton £25 @26.67 with BET VICTOR
Lucky 31 (31 £3 bets-£93 stake) accy Norwich, Bournemouth, MK Dons, Preston and Luton with William Hill, max pay out £581.94

Good Luck

Boxing Day tips

By | December 26, 2014

Merry Christmas to all, I hope you have had a good one, let's see if we can make it even better with some nice winnings today. Last Saturday we landed another 2/2 in our bets of the day to increase the profit for the season to over £1400. Bradford conceded a 95th minute equaliser to cost even more profit, but overall it was a good week.

Today see's a bumper feast of sporting action. We will as ever focus here on the football. My first tip today is my single from the Premier League which also makes my first bet of today's five fold and lucky 31 combo bets. Spurs have shown great away form recently with wins at Swansea,Villa and Hull. They head to play Leicester today with the third best away record in the PL. The foxes on the other hand have the worst form in the country at the moment losing 9/10 games, and haven't won in 12. Their confidence is shot and so are their chances of getting anything today. Spurs are 11-10 to win this and although they are away, this plays into their hands as they are better away from home this season, a great price this one. The second leg of my 5 fold and lucky 31 comes at Goodison. Everton looked strong in beating QPR in their last home game, and I think with Barkley back from injury they will really push on over the coming weeks, especially at Goodison. They face a Stoke side who have only won 1 in their last 6 away from home and have only won 2/10 over the last 8 weeks. Everton are 4-5 in this, nice odds for the accy. The third leg of the 5 fold also comes in the Premier League. Manchester City should have a relatively straight forward game today. Yes they are away from home, but for me they are the in form team in the PL. Even without a recognised striker they have won the last 3 quite comfortably. They have the best away form in the country and have won their last 8 games on the bounce, including wins over Bayern Munich and away in Rome. Lowly West Brom should therefore offer little resistance today. The Baggies have only won 2/10 and that was against Villa and Leicester. Today's opposition is different class and at 8/13 the odds aren't great but are a nice boost to the accy.

Spurs to beat Leicester £50 win @ 11-10 with William Hill

The Championship offers a few nice looking fixtures today. My second singles bet and tip of the day comes at Vicarage Road. This televised match pits in-form Watford against out of form Wolves. Watford have been good to me this season and I fancy them to continue that today. They have the second best attacking stats in the league averaging over 2 goals per game and have won their last 3 games scoring 8 and conceeding only 1 in the process. Wolves on the other hand have only won 1 in their last 8. At 11-10 I think this is great odds and this is also added to my 5 fold selection. The fifth and final leg comes with the leaders. Bournemouth seem to get more impressive every week and they score for fun. They are unbeaten in 12 and average 2.27 goals per game. They play an inconsistent and average Fulham today at Dean Court. I expected them to be shorter than the 7-10 odds available today.

Watford to beat Wolves £50 win @ 11-10 with William Hill.

Spurs, Everton, Manchester City, Watford and Bournmouth all to win £30 5-fold 23.37 with Bet Victor and lucky 31 (31 bets of £3) max payout £1099.

Best of luck today. There was nothing I really fancied in league 1 or 2 today by the way

Boxing Day Betting Bonanza+28th Dec

By | December 23, 2014

A bit of Christmas time alliteration in the post title.  It's a time of lots of games over the festive period and I will be looking at games across three days.  I can write the post across all three and still include my stakes.  As I have stated before, it shouldn't matter if we win big or not, the stakes should still be the same and we should back with confidence.

Last week saw a loss of £161.50.  A horrendous refereeing decision started the day off badly with Derby Vs Norwich.  Martin Olsson for Norwich seemed to switch sports and become a basketball player, however the referee missed the incident and Norwich scored in the 89th minute from a resulting corner.  I did lay the bet off in running and made a £27.50 profit but for spreadsheet purposes and transparency I have left the sheet as it reads on the previous blog.  One game I didn't lay was my NAP (11 from 19 now).  The Blades had 12 shots to Walsall's 4 and 8 corners to 3 respectively.  I was watching the game and couldn't see Walsall getting back into it, very little time between goals too.  In Play is important when you are watching games, however it isn't an exact Science.  My other three bets were winners Luton, Liverpool Vs Arsenal draw at ht (lucky) and Chelsea.  Sadly I didn't I didn't pick anything up from my 365 free bets, placing a FGS on Chelsea game (Hazard) 10 seconds before John Terry scored :-(.

I still have two live PDC outright bets.  Taylor is looking good but there is a long way to go.

So to the upcoming football fixtures.

Premier League Boxing Day – Regular readers of this site will know that I like looking for value in the single market.  Boxing day pitches a lot of the lower league teams at home to the higher placed teams.  However, I am not massively keen on the prices of the away teams,  I would rather be backing Palace at home to Southampton (11/4 Victor) than backing Southampton (5/4 BWIN).  Leicester Vs Tottenham is another fixture that doesn't fill me with huge confidence and Spurs at 11/10 with Stan James is just not good enough to entice me.  Liverpool away to Burnley, as the odds would suggest, is the game I would be most comfortable in being on, but at 20/23 with Boyle it is not a game I will be involved in.  Sunderland had a good win at Newcastle last weekend and Hull are in free fall.  21 to 20 (most firms) for Sunderland is the bet that I like the look of the most in the Premier League for the boxing day fixtures.

Premier League 28th December – Apart from Man City Vs Burnley all the fixtures have the home team around even money or better.  All the away teams apart from Southampton Vs Chelsea are also odds against.  This always suggests it could be a tricky set of fixtures to predict.  It is for this reason that I am not going to bother.

The Championship Boxing Day – Birmingham Vs Derby County offers superb value for Birmingham who have lost only once in eight 8.  12/5 (Stan James) is excellent value and considering they have lost once in 24 games it makes them the proverbial bogey team to Derby.  Derby also have a boxing day hoodoo hanging over them winning just 1 of their last 9 boxing day fixtures.  Everything seems to be pointing to Derby finding it difficult to win.  The question is will they lose or draw?  Draw no bet is as good as 7/5 with Boyle.  I think Gary Rowett can continue the good run of form for The Blues.  Another team who has seen an upturn in fortune, since changing manager is Bolton, who are at home to Blackburn.  Bolton are 17/10 with Victor.  Blackburn have won 1 of the last 7 and have lost all 4 of the last 4 games away to Bolton.  Blackburn, like Derby, also seem to struggle on Boxing Day and they have lost their last 6.  A Bolton and Birmingham double pays a massive 9.18, this is certainly one to consider.  Brighton 6/5 (Ladbrokes) might have new manager syndrome against an out of sorts Reading and this should be one to consider.  The stats don't favour this one though with Reading unbeaten in their last 4 games at Brighton.  Leeds (NAP) at home to Wigan is a game I will be involved in (15/8 Victor), with all the stats screaming out in Leeds favour.  The thing with stats is you can read into them whatever you want but I am choosing to ignore Leeds only having 71 shots this season and concentrating on the fact no side has won fewer points (5) on the road than Wigan.  Plenty to get our teeth into it in The Championship on Boxing Day.

The Championship 28th December – I can't seem to see any games that float my boat on 28th December in The Championship.  Fulham (6/5 Stan James) Vs Brighton is a game that takes place on Monday 29th, I know I gave Brighton a small write up in the boxing day fixtures, but that was mainly bore through sentiment of new manager syndrome.  Fulham are on a good run of form and I think it will continue.

League One Boxing Day – The League One fixtures aren't as lucrative as The Championship on Boxing Day and this is a league I will be avoiding.

League One 28th December – MK Dons (8/11 Coral) Vs Walsall is the only game that jumps out at me.  MK are flying high and are very much in form, and whilst Walsall themselves are unbeaten in 7, I don't think parking the bus will work against a free scoring MK Dons side.

League Two Boxing Day – Exeter (6/5 Victor) Vs Cheltenham.  Exeter have one of the best recent home records and Cheltenham have one of the worst away, this is a good price and worth an investment.  Luton, a team who have served me well in recent weeks, are away to table topping Wycombe.  As much as they have won me some decent bets, I don't owe them anything so I will be leaving them on Boxing Day.

League Two 28th December – After just writing about Luton, it seems I have more sentiment for them than I thought.  Luton (NAP) (10/11 Boyles) Vs Portsmouth, Luton have the 3rd best home record in League Two and Portsmouth have the 4th worst away record.  Shrewsbury Vs Wycombe (7/2) is 2nd Vs 1st, the odds are great for Wycombe and a little nibble might be worthwhile. Tranmere (11/8 Ladbrokes) Vs Northampton is a game where Tranmere can continue their good run of form.  Micky Adams seems to be working some magic and might even get Tranmere out of the relegation zone before Christmas.

 

MY BETS

Boxing Day

Sunderland Vs Hull – Sunderland £75 at 21/20 (Skybet)

Birmingham Vs Derby – Birmingham £50 12/5 (Stan James)

Bolton Vs Blackburn – Bolton £50 at 17/10 (Victor)

Brighton Vs Reading – Brighton £25 at 6/5 (Ladbrokes)

Leeds Vs Wigan – Leeds £100 at 15/8 (Victor)

Exeter Vs Cheltenham – Exeter £75 at 6/5 (Victor)

The 6 team Accumulator pays over 260 to 1 with Victor.

Trebles, Fourfolds and Fivefold on the above (minus Brighton) 16 Bets at £2.50 each, Fivefold pays 120/1

 

28th December/29th December

Fulham Vs Brighton – Fulham £75 at 6/5 (Stan James)

MK Dons Vs Walsall – MK Dons £75 at 8/11 (Coral)

Luton Vs Portsmouth – Luton £100 at 10/11 (Boyles)

Shrewsbury Vs Wycombe – Wycombe £25 at 7/2 (Victor)

Tranmere Vs Northampton – Tranmere £50 at 11/8 (Ladbrokes)

Trebles and Fourfold on the above (minus Wycombe) 5 bets at £5 each, Fourfold pays 29/2

 

I hope you all have a very profitable Christmas and New Year.  I hope to be posting a blog late on January 2nd in readiness for the FA Cup fixtures on the 3rd of January.

Good Luck to you all. Ho Ho Ho!

 

20th December 2014 Betting Tips

By | December 20, 2014

Man Utd and the lucrative 365 offer was kind to me last weekend.  Bet 365 are also offering the in play bet again on two matches over this weekend, both the Liverpool and Chelsea games.  I will definitely be having £50 on something in both those games and then backing a decent price in running FGS.  Apart from Man Utd and Oxford, last weekend proved a tad dire.  11 from 18 NAPS after another loser and a £106 loss.  Thankfully I had in running money on Exeter at 6 to 4 but for spreadsheet purposes I will call it a loss.  It would be easy for me to just make the sheet into making profit each week but it's all about spotting opportunities in play and looking for value.  I was due to write this blog earlier but got involved in the in play darts market.  I backed Stein to beat Kellett in running at 2.08.  Kellett still wouldn't have won if he had thrown a hedgehog.  The darts was horrendous but the odds didn't reflect the way the game was going.  Also mid week I backed Sheffield United to beat Southampton at 6.2 in running.  I was at the game and Sheffield United were on top from the first whistle.  I placed my bet around the 55th minute.  I couldn't envisage Oldham losing in such emphatic fashion, it seemed Lee Johnson was after extra spuds for Christmas Dinner, doing his dad Gary a massive favour.  All in all though I have had better weekends but also much worse.

It would be wrong not to mention the PDC World Championships.  I have backed Taylor £50 at 15/8 (Skybet) and also a speculative, with a view to potential lay, £20 Bunting 32/1 (Betfair).  Taylor looked OK in his first match and averaged over 100.  I am kicking myself for not going Wright and Taylor 3 nil 3 nil double at 7 to 2 though.  One lucky/brave punter had 4k on it, nice touch.

So, to this weekends football fixtures…………..

Premier League – As mentioned previously I will be acquiring my two £50 bets with 365 by going Liverpool Vs Arsenal Draw at half time 13/10.  Stoke Vs Chelsea, Chelsea to win at 8/13.  I can't see any other real value in the Premier League this weekend.  I wouldn't be betting on the aforementioned games unless it was for the in running offer.  There must be some other value somewhere……?

Championship – Derby vs Norwich is the early kick off and at odds of 13/10 with 365 this offers good value.  I hope this is a game that will start the weekend off well.  Derby played well against Chelsea midweek and will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Middlesbrough.  Derby also have a good record against Norwich so I will be staking some money on this one.  It is top Vs bottom but Bournemouth are away and only 7/10.  I can't see any other games screaming out at me in the Championship so it will just be the one game.

League One – After seeing Sheffield United turn over Southampton mid week I really fancy them to turn over Walsall at 21/20 (Coral) and I make them my NAP.  I already staked money on this just as the Southampton game finished as I expected the price to drop.  I have gone big on the Blades and I hope they can produce the goods.  Yet again, this league sees top Vs bottom but Bristol City are away to Crewe and at 4/6  SKy Bet, this is another game I will be avoiding.

League Two – I did see Luton at 27/20 (Coral) and thought it was a great price, however, Newport have a great away record so a small flutter may be advisable on this one.

A lot less bets than usual this weekend.  Through no other reason than I don't like any of the prices that are on offer. There is no point lumping more games in for the sake of it.  Some weeks I might see 8 bets and another 1.  As long as it is profitable it shouldn't matter.

 

MY BETS

Derby Vs Norwich – Derby £100 at 13/10 (Bet 365)

Sheffield United Vs Walsall – Sheffield United £200 at 21/20 (Coral)

Luton Vs Newport County – Luton £25 at 27/20 (Coral)

Liverpool Vs Arsenal – Draw at Half time – £50 at 13/10 (Bet 365)

Stoke Vs Chelsea – Chelsea – £50 at 8/13 (Bet 365)

No doubles or above this weekend.  I am content with my 5 singles, 2 of them are big bets so I hope it can be a nice lucrative weekend.

GOOD LUCK!!!

Let's hope we all have a Merry Christmas. 🙂