Monthly Archives: October 2016

I bet Paddypower are regretting paying out early on Hillary Clinton

By | October 28, 2016

Last week Paddypower paid out on Hillary Clinton and related bets. I had this from last year and they paid out.

paddypower-clinton

With the news that the FBI are reopening the email investigation in to Clinton the odds have drifted out. You can get 1.29 on Clinton winning it at Paddypower but you can get 1.33 at Ladbrokes. She still should win it but its not something you want to be paying out on.

Its not the first time that bookies have been caught out with paying out early and won't be the last. I'd like to thank Paddypower for their generosity in paying out early. I may even do better out of this as I laid a lot of my bet off.

betfair-president

What to do now? I can cash out and make £600. I'll let it ride for a bit. Thanks to Paddy, its like a free bet.

Next dead cert political bet.

With my winnings from Paddypower, I reinvested it in the most certain bet in UK politics since Jeremy Corbyn beating Owen Smith. Its a bit of long one but as money in the bank makes nothing, better investing in dead certs than earning nothing.

Its next election, Conservative most seats. At the moment, the Conservatives have 329 seats vs Labours 231. No other party has a chance. Its a two horse race between Labour and Conservatives.

paddypower-seats

The first past the post system means that smaller parties can't win. Lib Dems and UKIP might pick up some seats but no way will get the most. With the number of MPs looking like being cut to 600 and boundaries being redrawn, Labour are going to suffer, even before the Corbyn factor is taken in to account.

I don't see any scenario where Conservatives will not get more seats than Labour. At 1.25, its like getting a 5% return over 4 years. To me, the biggest risk is the currency falling. Will a pound still be worth as much in 2020 or whenever the next election is. Its probably going to be 2020 but with all the uncertainty, a snap election at some point, wouldn't be that much of a surprise.

A slightly riskier bet is conservative majority.

overall-majority

I can see maybe a hung parliament but no way a Labour Majority. I've put my money where my mouth is and bet max on both those bets.

paddy-pending

I love the bet I had back in 2011, When will alien life be proven. Nailed on 2020 or later at 3.5.

You can bet here at Paddypower