Man Utd and the lucrative 365 offer was kind to me last weekend. Bet 365 are also offering the in play bet again on two matches over this weekend, both the Liverpool and Chelsea games. I will definitely be having £50 on something in both those games and then backing a decent price in running FGS. Apart from Man Utd and Oxford, last weekend proved a tad dire. 11 from 18 NAPS after another loser and a £106 loss. Thankfully I had in running money on Exeter at 6 to 4 but for spreadsheet purposes I will call it a loss. It would be easy for me to just make the sheet into making profit each week but it's all about spotting opportunities in play and looking for value. I was due to write this blog earlier but got involved in the in play darts market. I backed Stein to beat Kellett in running at 2.08. Kellett still wouldn't have won if he had thrown a hedgehog. The darts was horrendous but the odds didn't reflect the way the game was going. Also mid week I backed Sheffield United to beat Southampton at 6.2 in running. I was at the game and Sheffield United were on top from the first whistle. I placed my bet around the 55th minute. I couldn't envisage Oldham losing in such emphatic fashion, it seemed Lee Johnson was after extra spuds for Christmas Dinner, doing his dad Gary a massive favour. All in all though I have had better weekends but also much worse.
It would be wrong not to mention the PDC World Championships. I have backed Taylor £50 at 15/8 (Skybet) and also a speculative, with a view to potential lay, £20 Bunting 32/1 (Betfair). Taylor looked OK in his first match and averaged over 100. I am kicking myself for not going Wright and Taylor 3 nil 3 nil double at 7 to 2 though. One lucky/brave punter had 4k on it, nice touch.
So, to this weekends football fixtures…………..
Premier League – As mentioned previously I will be acquiring my two £50 bets with 365 by going Liverpool Vs Arsenal Draw at half time 13/10. Stoke Vs Chelsea, Chelsea to win at 8/13. I can't see any other real value in the Premier League this weekend. I wouldn't be betting on the aforementioned games unless it was for the in running offer. There must be some other value somewhere……?
Championship – Derby vs Norwich is the early kick off and at odds of 13/10 with 365 this offers good value. I hope this is a game that will start the weekend off well. Derby played well against Chelsea midweek and will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Middlesbrough. Derby also have a good record against Norwich so I will be staking some money on this one. It is top Vs bottom but Bournemouth are away and only 7/10. I can't see any other games screaming out at me in the Championship so it will just be the one game.
League One – After seeing Sheffield United turn over Southampton mid week I really fancy them to turn over Walsall at 21/20 (Coral) and I make them my NAP. I already staked money on this just as the Southampton game finished as I expected the price to drop. I have gone big on the Blades and I hope they can produce the goods. Yet again, this league sees top Vs bottom but Bristol City are away to Crewe and at 4/6 SKy Bet, this is another game I will be avoiding.
League Two – I did see Luton at 27/20 (Coral) and thought it was a great price, however, Newport have a great away record so a small flutter may be advisable on this one.
A lot less bets than usual this weekend. Through no other reason than I don't like any of the prices that are on offer. There is no point lumping more games in for the sake of it. Some weeks I might see 8 bets and another 1. As long as it is profitable it shouldn't matter.
Derby Vs Norwich – Derby £100 at 13/10 (Bet 365)
Sheffield United Vs Walsall – Sheffield United £200 at 21/20 (Coral)
Luton Vs Newport County – Luton £25 at 27/20 (Coral)
Liverpool Vs Arsenal – Draw at Half time – £50 at 13/10 (Bet 365)
Stoke Vs Chelsea – Chelsea – £50 at 8/13 (Bet 365)
No doubles or above this weekend. I am content with my 5 singles, 2 of them are big bets so I hope it can be a nice lucrative weekend.
Let's hope we all have a Merry Christmas. 🙂