I hope you all had a good time over the festive season. A £1727.84 profit since 9th August 2014 is not to be sniffed at. This is despite taking a £346 hit at the back end of 2014. I want to look forward to 2015 and not dwell on the poor finish but, as per normal, I will mention last weekends bets (briefly on this occasion). Boxing Day saw 2 winners from 6 and 28th December produced 1 winner from 5. Well, I did say it was going to be brief. My PDC Darts bets are still going OK with a guaranteed finalist after I backed Barney at 21/1 (Betfair) for £10. MVG does look lethal now after a shaky start. I won't be laying any of my bets off and I will enjoy the final and let it ride.
11 from 21 NAPS is just not good enough. I have made it my New Years Resolution to get more NAPS correct and, unlike dieting fads, I intend to stick to mine. The figure is not great, the NAPS are around even money or better, but a same stake betting plan would still have us slightly in front.
With just 3 matches in League One and 9 matches in League Two it must mean we have reached the FA Cup Third Round. Finding ties that have good value in this is often tricky and HT FT bets usually offer the better value in rounds 1 and 2. Is it possible to find any in the 3rd round though?
League One – Walsall Vs Coventry is the only game of the 3 that offers any value. Walsall produced a great victory over MK Dons last time out and have lost only 1 of their last 9 games. Coventry have lost 6 of their 11 away games and at 13/10 with Bet 365 for a Walsall victory, I think it is worth a wager. Coventry are no mugs and have lost only 2 of their last 7 so I would air on the side of caution. The teams did play very recently and it ended nil nil.
League Two – Top of the league Shrewsbury, this week face a team that are third in the league, Burton. The resurgence in from since Jimmy Floyd took over has been fantastic. Burton are great and home and Shrewsbury are top based on their home performances. The other week I tipped Wycombe at 5/2 against Shrewsbury, it finished nil nil. This week the home team are 23/10 with Boyle Sports. A more sensible bet would be Draw No Bet at 5/4 with Boyle but I do really like the odds for Burton. Remember, with these games we can afford a few more errors with the prices being so good. The teams played a few games ago at Shrewsbury in a game they won 1-0. Newport (NAP) at slightly odds on at 19/20 (Victor) is another game I like the look of. Newport won the away game against Carlisle recently with a score of 3-2 and I expect them to produce another victory this time round at home to them.
FA Cup Third Round – Hopefully I can spot some value and avoid the banana skins. An all Championship encounter which pits Bolton Vs Wigan 6/4 with Bet365. Wigan are concentrating on survival and Lennon will want to continue his great start. I can't see any other games screaming out for the Saturday games so let's take a look at Sunday. There are a lot of Premier League teams against lower league opposition. All the ties seem ovious shoe ins but the prices reflect this. Two games to consider with HT FT are Palace 6/5 (Victor) HT FT away at Dover and Aston Villa 11/10 (Victor) HT FT at home to Blackpool.
Walsall Vs Coventry – £25 Walsall at 13/10 (Bet 365)
Burton Vs Shrewsbury – £50 Burton at 23/10 (Boyles)
Newport Vs Carlisle – £100 Newport at 19/20 (Victor)
Bolton Vs Wigan – £75 Bolton at 6/4 (Bet 365)
Dover Vs Crystal Palace – £50 Palace HT FT at 6/5 (Victor)
Aston Villa Vs Blackpool – £50 Aston Villa HT FT at 11/10 (Victor)
Double Bolton and Newport – £50 at 4.88 (William Hill)
Double Villa HT FT and Palace HT FT – £50 at at 4.62 (Victor)
Trebles and Fourfolds (using the 4 bets above) – 5 bets at £10 each, 22.07 for the Fourfold (Victor)
All the best and Happy betting for 2015.