A bit of Christmas time alliteration in the post title. It's a time of lots of games over the festive period and I will be looking at games across three days. I can write the post across all three and still include my stakes. As I have stated before, it shouldn't matter if we win big or not, the stakes should still be the same and we should back with confidence.
Last week saw a loss of £161.50. A horrendous refereeing decision started the day off badly with Derby Vs Norwich. Martin Olsson for Norwich seemed to switch sports and become a basketball player, however the referee missed the incident and Norwich scored in the 89th minute from a resulting corner. I did lay the bet off in running and made a £27.50 profit but for spreadsheet purposes and transparency I have left the sheet as it reads on the previous blog. One game I didn't lay was my NAP (11 from 19 now). The Blades had 12 shots to Walsall's 4 and 8 corners to 3 respectively. I was watching the game and couldn't see Walsall getting back into it, very little time between goals too. In Play is important when you are watching games, however it isn't an exact Science. My other three bets were winners Luton, Liverpool Vs Arsenal draw at ht (lucky) and Chelsea. Sadly I didn't I didn't pick anything up from my 365 free bets, placing a FGS on Chelsea game (Hazard) 10 seconds before John Terry scored :-(.
I still have two live PDC outright bets. Taylor is looking good but there is a long way to go.
So to the upcoming football fixtures.
Premier League Boxing Day – Regular readers of this site will know that I like looking for value in the single market. Boxing day pitches a lot of the lower league teams at home to the higher placed teams. However, I am not massively keen on the prices of the away teams, I would rather be backing Palace at home to Southampton (11/4 Victor) than backing Southampton (5/4 BWIN). Leicester Vs Tottenham is another fixture that doesn't fill me with huge confidence and Spurs at 11/10 with Stan James is just not good enough to entice me. Liverpool away to Burnley, as the odds would suggest, is the game I would be most comfortable in being on, but at 20/23 with Boyle it is not a game I will be involved in. Sunderland had a good win at Newcastle last weekend and Hull are in free fall. 21 to 20 (most firms) for Sunderland is the bet that I like the look of the most in the Premier League for the boxing day fixtures.
Premier League 28th December – Apart from Man City Vs Burnley all the fixtures have the home team around even money or better. All the away teams apart from Southampton Vs Chelsea are also odds against. This always suggests it could be a tricky set of fixtures to predict. It is for this reason that I am not going to bother.
The Championship Boxing Day – Birmingham Vs Derby County offers superb value for Birmingham who have lost only once in eight 8. 12/5 (Stan James) is excellent value and considering they have lost once in 24 games it makes them the proverbial bogey team to Derby. Derby also have a boxing day hoodoo hanging over them winning just 1 of their last 9 boxing day fixtures. Everything seems to be pointing to Derby finding it difficult to win. The question is will they lose or draw? Draw no bet is as good as 7/5 with Boyle. I think Gary Rowett can continue the good run of form for The Blues. Another team who has seen an upturn in fortune, since changing manager is Bolton, who are at home to Blackburn. Bolton are 17/10 with Victor. Blackburn have won 1 of the last 7 and have lost all 4 of the last 4 games away to Bolton. Blackburn, like Derby, also seem to struggle on Boxing Day and they have lost their last 6. A Bolton and Birmingham double pays a massive 9.18, this is certainly one to consider. Brighton 6/5 (Ladbrokes) might have new manager syndrome against an out of sorts Reading and this should be one to consider. The stats don't favour this one though with Reading unbeaten in their last 4 games at Brighton. Leeds (NAP) at home to Wigan is a game I will be involved in (15/8 Victor), with all the stats screaming out in Leeds favour. The thing with stats is you can read into them whatever you want but I am choosing to ignore Leeds only having 71 shots this season and concentrating on the fact no side has won fewer points (5) on the road than Wigan. Plenty to get our teeth into it in The Championship on Boxing Day.
The Championship 28th December – I can't seem to see any games that float my boat on 28th December in The Championship. Fulham (6/5 Stan James) Vs Brighton is a game that takes place on Monday 29th, I know I gave Brighton a small write up in the boxing day fixtures, but that was mainly bore through sentiment of new manager syndrome. Fulham are on a good run of form and I think it will continue.
League One Boxing Day – The League One fixtures aren't as lucrative as The Championship on Boxing Day and this is a league I will be avoiding.
League One 28th December – MK Dons (8/11 Coral) Vs Walsall is the only game that jumps out at me. MK are flying high and are very much in form, and whilst Walsall themselves are unbeaten in 7, I don't think parking the bus will work against a free scoring MK Dons side.
League Two Boxing Day – Exeter (6/5 Victor) Vs Cheltenham. Exeter have one of the best recent home records and Cheltenham have one of the worst away, this is a good price and worth an investment. Luton, a team who have served me well in recent weeks, are away to table topping Wycombe. As much as they have won me some decent bets, I don't owe them anything so I will be leaving them on Boxing Day.
League Two 28th December – After just writing about Luton, it seems I have more sentiment for them than I thought. Luton (NAP) (10/11 Boyles) Vs Portsmouth, Luton have the 3rd best home record in League Two and Portsmouth have the 4th worst away record. Shrewsbury Vs Wycombe (7/2) is 2nd Vs 1st, the odds are great for Wycombe and a little nibble might be worthwhile. Tranmere (11/8 Ladbrokes) Vs Northampton is a game where Tranmere can continue their good run of form. Micky Adams seems to be working some magic and might even get Tranmere out of the relegation zone before Christmas.
Sunderland Vs Hull – Sunderland £75 at 21/20 (Skybet)
Birmingham Vs Derby – Birmingham £50 12/5 (Stan James)
Bolton Vs Blackburn – Bolton £50 at 17/10 (Victor)
Brighton Vs Reading – Brighton £25 at 6/5 (Ladbrokes)
Leeds Vs Wigan – Leeds £100 at 15/8 (Victor)
Exeter Vs Cheltenham – Exeter £75 at 6/5 (Victor)
The 6 team Accumulator pays over 260 to 1 with Victor.
Trebles, Fourfolds and Fivefold on the above (minus Brighton) 16 Bets at £2.50 each, Fivefold pays 120/1
28th December/29th December
Fulham Vs Brighton – Fulham £75 at 6/5 (Stan James)
MK Dons Vs Walsall – MK Dons £75 at 8/11 (Coral)
Luton Vs Portsmouth – Luton £100 at 10/11 (Boyles)
Shrewsbury Vs Wycombe – Wycombe £25 at 7/2 (Victor)
Tranmere Vs Northampton – Tranmere £50 at 11/8 (Ladbrokes)
Trebles and Fourfold on the above (minus Wycombe) 5 bets at £5 each, Fourfold pays 29/2
I hope you all have a very profitable Christmas and New Year. I hope to be posting a blog late on January 2nd in readiness for the FA Cup fixtures on the 3rd of January.
Good Luck to you all. Ho Ho Ho!