Tories most seat betting

By | May 14, 2017

2016 turned out to be the big year of political shocks, first Brexit, then Trump. The conclusion was that politics was too unpredictable. Thats not really true though. If you look at the polls, both events were within the margin of error. A few did predict them both.

In 2017, the polls seems to be a lot better or at the least the races a lot wider apart so that polling errors won't make a difference. In the French election, after Macron and Le Penn were confirmed at the final 2, the odds on a Macron win were a massive 1.14. That might not seem like a lot but when polls put both Macron 20 points ahead in a head to head, the true odds should be something like 1.01.

A similar thing is happening with the UK general election. The Tories are in some polls 20 points ahead. With the first past the post system and safe seats it looks like its going to be a landslide Tory majority. The Sunday Express are saying that “May to smash Maggie record”. A Tory win is almost all but certain.

So what are the odds on this? 1.02, 1.03? Looking on Betfair, its actually 1.07.

That a cracking price. However, there is an even better bet. If you look at the odds for most seats, its 1.04 for Tories to just win the most seats. Thats almost half the odds but is it half as likely?

Before parliament was dissolved, the seats looks like this

 

Party

Seats

Conservative 330
Labour 229
Liberal Democrat 9
Democratic Unionist 8
Scottish National 54
Independent 4
Sinn Féin 4
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Ulster Unionist Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Green 1
Vacant 1
Speaker 1
Total number of seats 650
Working Government Majority 17

For the Tories to lose the most seats bet, Labour would have to win 51 seats at the expense of the Tories. That's impossible given the current situation. You could maybe see a possibility for a hung parliament, with all the marginals going to Labour or the Lib Dems, the 1.07 is safe but you can see some risk. Maybe a terror attack and the government deal really badly with it, could cause a shift on polling day. The difference in the two bets is absolutely huge though. The “Most seats bets” is certain whereas the “Conservative Majority” bet is highly likely but you could see some circumstances where it may fail to win.

So if you want to make money out of the election, the smart money is on the Tory Most seats. The best price currently is at Betfred which gives a 1.04 price for Most Seats.

I don't know the limits there but if you want to take a slightly smaller price, you can pretty much put what you want on at Betfair Exchange. At the moment, there is about £10,000 that can be bet at 1.04. That'd be a nice £400 profit minus the 5% commission. Net profit £380. Thats much better than money sat in a bank. Obviously there is some risk there but as explained the chances of it happening are slim to none*.

I've taken the wager myself. Thats all my betting bank on the Tory Most seats. Come June 8th, that will be be a winner. Tories may not get a majority but they'll not lose 51 seats to the Labour Party.

* Shocks do happen, do not bet what you cannot afford to lose. When the fun stops, STOP.

Betvictor’s Accumulator Best Price Guarantee

By | November 15, 2016

Every so often you get an offer so good, it makes all other offers irrelevant. I believe Bet Victor have come up with an offer which is so good, makes it pointless betting anywhere else for accumulators.

There are actually 2 offers in 1. The first is pretty standard. It the put a 5 fold or more on and if one lets you down, they will give you your money back as a free bet. Probably sounds a lot better than it is. I've been using this offer and it always seems its only 1 team that lets your accumulator down. Thats not actually true at all. You just remember the time when all that happens. The offer allows you to put up to £25 on and they will refund up to £25 a day.

The better offer is the best price accumulator guarantee. They pay you out at a price which was highest out of Bet365, BetFair (Sportsbook), BetFred, Coral, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, SkyBet or William Hill. It saves you having to compare the odds.

The send you an email the day after telling you how much you benefited from the offer.

betvictor-win

Ben, we've topped up your account with real cash

We've Given You More Cash With Price Promise

Ben, we dropped the ball yesterday and it turns out your winning accumulator would have received more with one of our major competitors*.

Not to worry, we’ve topped up your account with an extra £55.88 as part of our Price Promise, it’s in there now as real cash.

With our Price Promise* and Acca Insurance on 5-folds+, we're committed to giving you the best value in football betting.

The terms are really generous. Hopefully this offer will last. Its been quite profitable just going on to the site on certain match days and sticking £25 on whatever the top 5 football bets are.

 

How Does It Work?

 

1. Place a football match betting 5 fold or above.

 

2. If your bet wins, we’ll check your bet against the prices available at the time you placed it, and pay the difference in cash if a leading bookmaker were offering better odds.

 

Terms and Conditions

 

1. Place a 5-fold, or above, accumulator on the pre-event ‘Match Betting’ market in any league and you will automatically receive our BetVictor Price Promise. If your bet wins, and at the time of your bet you could have won more with one of our competitors we will give you the difference in real cash.

 

2. ‘Competitors' refers to the following bookmakers: Bet365, BetFair (Sportsbook), BetFred, Coral, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, SkyBet or William Hill. Prices from other bookmakers will not be taken into consideration.

 

3. Promotional, or Enhanced prices are not eligible for price comparison. ACCA prices are calculated using the 1×2 (Match Betting) price of each game, and are verified by TX Odds (3rd Party Verifier).

 

4. ‘At the time of your bet' refers to the last full minute preceding bet placement; your bet can be placed at any time prior to kick off of the first fixture.

 

5. If your bet wins you will be paid out at the existing BetVictor price as usual, then you will have the extra amount (bringing your winnings up to the best price at the time of your bet) credited with real cash within 48 hours. There are no wagering requirements on your additional winnings.

 

6. This promotion is live from 12:00 UK Time on Monday 1st February until further notice.

 

7. Football Match Betting 5-20 fold bets only qualify. Void bets, In-Play bets, Bet Boosts, Cashed Out bets, partially Cashed Out bets or enhanced accumulators will not qualify for this promotion.

 

8. If one or more matches are made void or postponed meaning your bet has fewer than 5 eligible selections then this bet does not qualify for the BetVictor Price Promise.

 

9. This offer is open to both new and existing members of the BetVictor Sportsbook website.

 

10. This offer can be used in conjunction with any standard BetVictor promotion, unless stated in that promotions terms and conditions.

 

11. Competitor price must be valid for 15 consecutive minutes, which includes the minute prior to bet placement to qualify; these 15 minutes do not all have to occur prior to bet placement. For example, if you place a bet at 12:05, and a competitor price had most recently changed at 12:00, this price will become valid for your best price guarantee if it hasn’t changed by 12:15.

 

12. Offer is open to all validated customers; excluding those who are subject to a sportsbook or bonus restriction for any reason, or are resident in a restricted territory. More Info

 

13. Winning bets placed with bonus funds will be eligible for Price Promise, and any profit that exceeds your total stake will be returned to your real account balance. The Bonus Fund stake will not be returned.

 

14. In the event that no other bookmakers has a valid price for your bet, BetVictor will be deemed to be best price by default.

 

15. General Promotion terms and conditions apply.

 


Frequently Asked Questions

 

1. What is BetVictor Price Promise? We are so confident in our prices that if your 5-Fold or above football accumulator would have paid more at another bookie, we'll pay you the difference, in real cash!

 

2. How do I qualify for BetVictor Price Promise? Place any 5-Fold or above football accumulator on the Win/Draw/Win market. Simple As.

 

3. Can I receive BetVictor Price Promise in addition to the Sign-Up Offer? Yes, this is a real cash adjustment to your winning bet and can be used in conjunction with any BetVictor offer unless otherwise stated.

 

4. How are BetVictor Price Promise pay-outs calculated? Individual match odds are monitored by an independent third party (TX Odds), the odds are then combined to give an accumulator price, the prices at the time you place your bet are then compared with the actual price you received with BetVictor, your account will then be topped up the following day (although this may take 48 hours in exceptional circumstances) to bring your winnings up to the maximum you could have won with our competitors.

 

5. When will I be paid out as part of BetVictor Price Promise? We endeavour to pay all Price Promise top-ups the day after your bet settles. However, we reserve the right to delay payments up to 48 hours in exceptional circumstances.

 

6. How do I know if I will be paid as part of BetVictor Price Promise? We are constantly monitoring the odds so you don't have to, if necessary you will automatically receive a Price Promise top-up the day after your bet settles. If you don't receive a top-up, you will know that you've received the best value with BetVictor.

 

7. Which bookies are included in the BetVictor Price Promise? Our prices are compared against the following bookmakers: Bet365, BetFair (Sportsbook), BetFred, Coral, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, SkyBet or William Hill.

 

8. Are there any leagues that don't qualify for BetVictor Price Promise? No, your bet can be across any football competition that we offer odds on.

 

9. What Bets Qualify for BetVictor Price Promise? Pre-Event, 90 Mins, Win/Draw/Win, 5-Fold or above accumulators placed prior to kick-off time qualify.

 

10. I placed a bet at 2pm, but the odds were bigger at kick-off, why have I not been paid? BetVictor Price Promise guarantees you the best price at the time you place your bet, changes in price over time are not taken into consideration.

 

11. Team A were bigger odds with Bookmaker A and Team B were bigger odds with Bookmaker B, why have I not been paid? BetVictor Price Promise compares the price of your total bet with the same bet at other bookmakers. As you cannot place an accumulator that mixes bookmakers, this is not covered by the BetVictor Price Promise.

 

12. I placed an Enhanced ACCA, does my bet qualify? BetVictor Price Promise does not apply to accumulators that have been enhanced; either by BetVictor or by a competitor.

 

13. Do bets placed with Bonus Funds qualify? Yes, but you won't have your stake returned; as per standard bonus fund conditions.

I bet Paddypower are regretting paying out early on Hillary Clinton

By | October 28, 2016

Last week Paddypower paid out on Hillary Clinton and related bets. I had this from last year and they paid out.

paddypower-clinton

With the news that the FBI are reopening the email investigation in to Clinton the odds have drifted out. You can get 1.29 on Clinton winning it at Paddypower but you can get 1.33 at Ladbrokes. She still should win it but its not something you want to be paying out on.

Its not the first time that bookies have been caught out with paying out early and won't be the last. I'd like to thank Paddypower for their generosity in paying out early. I may even do better out of this as I laid a lot of my bet off.

betfair-president

What to do now? I can cash out and make £600. I'll let it ride for a bit. Thanks to Paddy, its like a free bet.

Next dead cert political bet.

With my winnings from Paddypower, I reinvested it in the most certain bet in UK politics since Jeremy Corbyn beating Owen Smith. Its a bit of long one but as money in the bank makes nothing, better investing in dead certs than earning nothing.

Its next election, Conservative most seats. At the moment, the Conservatives have 329 seats vs Labours 231. No other party has a chance. Its a two horse race between Labour and Conservatives.

paddypower-seats

The first past the post system means that smaller parties can't win. Lib Dems and UKIP might pick up some seats but no way will get the most. With the number of MPs looking like being cut to 600 and boundaries being redrawn, Labour are going to suffer, even before the Corbyn factor is taken in to account.

I don't see any scenario where Conservatives will not get more seats than Labour. At 1.25, its like getting a 5% return over 4 years. To me, the biggest risk is the currency falling. Will a pound still be worth as much in 2020 or whenever the next election is. Its probably going to be 2020 but with all the uncertainty, a snap election at some point, wouldn't be that much of a surprise.

A slightly riskier bet is conservative majority.

overall-majority

I can see maybe a hung parliament but no way a Labour Majority. I've put my money where my mouth is and bet max on both those bets.

paddy-pending

I love the bet I had back in 2011, When will alien life be proven. Nailed on 2020 or later at 3.5.

You can bet here at Paddypower

Odds on the next general election being in 2020

By | September 10, 2016

I wrote this before but it didn't save. Basically Theresa May has ruled out a snap election. Bet365 are offering 2.2 for the election to be in 2020. Corals are offering 1.67 which I think is more like it.

Hit bet max and put £250 on it.

bet-365-election-odds

No chance of an election this year so 6.0 is a joke price. I'd want 25.0 at least. Less than 4 months of the year left and that includes Christmas. Only thing that could scupper this bet is if something terrible happens before article 50 gets invoked.

With the fixed terms parliament act, there are only 2 ways a general election can be called.

  1. Two thirds of MPs vote – unlikely that Labour and Conservative will agree
  2. Vote of no confidence. Unlikely that the Conservatives will give themselves a vote of no confidence.

Anyway, fingers crossed May keeps her word and no snap elections. Might be a long time to wait for the winnings but money isn't making anything in the bank.

bet365slip

Bet here with Bet365