William hill accumulator week 2

By | August 15, 2014

Last weekend was a bit of a disaster. Only 3 of the 6 came in. Well done to Ryan who got both of his right.

This weeks accumulator is
Everton to beat Leicester.
Spurs to beat West Ham.
Bournemouth to beat Brentford.
Morecambe to beat Newport
Stoke to beat Villa
Cardiff to beat Huddersfield


Really good price this week. If it comes in, we're sorted for the season.

Relegation Doom can bring delight

By | August 14, 2014

Last week we looked at the success stories for the forthcoming season around promotion and title challengers. This week on the eve of the first Premier League fixtures we will look at where the value is for those teams that will struggle at the wrong end of the table.

Firstly, let's look at the Premier League. As with most seasons the obvious choices will come from those most recently promoted. Burnley are nailed on to go back down for me. They have barely strengthened this summer and don't have the financial clout to be able to spend their way out of trouble or compete with those around them to reach that magic 40 point marker. They are too short to back as a single however. As for the other promoted sides I believe Arry and QPR will have enough to stay up and have made their best signing off the field with the appointment of Glenn Hoddle to help The back room staff. Leicester are an unknown quantity but I have a feeling the may stay up and if push comes to shove could invest 10-20 million in January to help keep them up. My NAP for relegation is West Brom. The baggies stayed up the skin of their teeth last season and despite a number of summer signings have not strengthened in my opinion. The squad looks devoid of talent and with Alan Irvine lacking any PL experience he will be lucky to get to Christmas in charge. You can get 5-2 with West Brom as a single (sky bet) or double them up with Burnley at 9-2 with Bet365. My third shout would be Aston Villa. Villa struggled again last season, and with no star signings, a lack of financial backing and Benteke still out injured I can see them slipping out the league and are 3-1 to do so.

West Brom to be relegated and Nottingham forest to be promoted double 14-1 (bet 365) £15

West Brom, Burnley, villa to be relegated treble 40-1 (bet 365) £5

Outside the PL there is also value but it gets more tricky to pick who will go down, especially at this stage of the season. In the Championship I have a fear for Leeds fans. The new chairman Massimo Cellino sacked 36 managers in 22 seasons he had at Cagliari and in Hockaday have a real unknown in the fire of a competitive championship league.  They have also lost their star striker in Ross McCormack, who's goals kept them up last season. At 3-1 they are good value to go down.

In league 1, both Notts County (7-2) and Gillingham (9-4) will struggle to beat the drop, but I don't fancy enough to stick my neck out and follow through at this stage, but as with Leeds I will look out for early season form over the coming weeks and update if I follow them up with a nibble or 2.


Saturday 16th August Tips

By | August 13, 2014

A £37.50 loss on the first week out the season.  I was hoping for better.  It is all about the long game though and we can't chase or let these little set backs knock us.  I got a little greedy in the first week and had quite a few bets.  My nap came in and also my pre write up team (Forest), the double paid 2.44.  This week I will try and find three games around even money and have doubles, trebles and one single.  This formula has proved successful for me before and I think it can prove successful in the long term.  I don't often do over/under bets but looked at the stats to ascertain what would be good.  Middlesbrough were the only stand out team for me last weekend.  This weekend holds more promise.

Cardiff to beat Huddersfield (3/4 at Sky Bet) NAP

This is slightly lower than the even money I was after but this bet looks golden to me.  I make Cardiff my best bet this week.  Huddersfield had a mid week extra time game against Chesterfield and they were 3-1 down until 85th minute.  As I write Cardiff are one nil up in their Cup game and I fully expect them to progress comfortably.  Huddersfield bizarrely sacked Robins after one game too so they aren't the most stable at the minute.

Stoke to beat Aston Villa (Evens at Ladbrokes)

Stoke finished the season very strongly and their home form was great.  Aston Villa didn't get a single point from their last 6 home games.  Stoke's new signing, Bojan, has done well pre season and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up on the score sheet.

Doncaster to beat Port Vale (Evens at Victor)

A solid performance from Doncaster the first game and a draw for Port Vale.  Port Vale went for some very easy games in pre season and this always makes me wary about a teams morale.  I think the odds are quite good in this one and I will be throwing it in the treble.

Speculative bet (decent price)

Wolves away to beat Rotherham (13/8 Coral)

My Bets

Cardiff £100 at 3/4 with Sky Bet

Cardiff, Stoke and Doncaster 3 doubles and a treble (4 bets @ £25 each 6.64 Victor, next best 6.38 Sky Bet)



Paddypowers Goal Scorer Offer

By | August 8, 2014

I go this email from Paddypower the other day. Basically, the offer is

Here's the deal…Place a £20 bet on the Premier League Top Goalscorer and every time he scores we'll give you a £2 free bet.

The terms are

PL Top Goalscorer Offer:

  • Place a GBP/EUR20 bet on a player in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market and get a GBP/EUR2 free bet every time he scores.
  • Applies to bets placed Online, Mobile, iPad, Text and PP Messenger; does not apply to bets placed via Dial-A-Bet.
  • Applies to bets placed on Premier League 2014-15 Top Goalscorer market only. Applies to bets placed from 12am Friday 1st August until 12:25pm on Saturday 16th August.
  • Qualifying bet must be GBP/EUR20 or more on a single player, either GBP/EUR20 win or GBP/EUR10 each-way.
  • Maximum GBP/EUR2 free bet per selection per Premier League goal scored.
  • Own goals do not count.
  • Customers who use Cash Out on their original Top Goalscorer bet will no longer be valid for Free Bets when their selection scores.
  • Free bet can be placed on any sport and are valid for 7 days.
  • Free bet stake not returned.
  • Free bets will be credited on a weekly basis, by 12pm every Monday.
  • To qualify for ongoing free bets, customers must have staked at least GBP/EUR10 in actual, non-free bet, sportsbook stakes in the 30 days prior to qualifying.
  • A customer will be able to claim a maximum of GBP/EUR10 in free bets per week, Monday to Sunday.
    Paddy Power reserves the right, at its discretion, to withdraw this promotion from certain customers and to change the terms or availability of this offer at any time.
  • Premier League/OPTA will be used for settlement purposes.
  • Paddy Power football rules apply.

My bold there. Each way goal scorers count. That makes it better value. You have to bet with them regularly to get the free bets. Not a problem for me but some people might have that problem.

I think this offer is actually worth it. Your goal scorer needs to score 10 and you are even on the free bets. Looking at last seasons top goal scorers, the top 15 all scored more than 10. These were

Luis Suarez (Liverpool) 31
Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool) 22
Yaya Toure (Man City) 20
Sergio Aguero (Man City) 17
Wayne Rooney (Man Utd) 17
Olivier Giroud (Arsenal) 16
Wilfried Bony (Swansea) 15
Edin Dzeko (Man City) 15
Romelu Lukaku (Everton) 15
Eden Hazard (Chelsea) 14
Jay Rodriguez (Southampton) 14
Rickie Lambert (Southampton) 13
Steven Gerrard (Liverpool) 12
Robin van Persie (Man Utd) 12
Christian Benteke (Aston Villa) 10
Aaron Ramsey (Arsenal) 10

So really you are looking at backing one of the strikers for the big 4/5 teams. Looking at the current top 15 favourites, they all should get 10 goals so you get all your money back as free bets, plus have the chance to win the bet.


I am going to go for Costa. If Mourinho plays a lone striker its likely to be him. I have great expectations for Chelsea this year so he should score a few. He was rubbish in the World Cup but I have faith in him.

My other bet is going to be Sanchez, he impressed me at the World Cup and scored 19 from 34 appearances at Barcelona last season. At 16/1 that'll pay out nicely each way.


Nice bonus that each way pays 4 places. I am expecting to at least get back all my stake in free bets over the season. The free £2 bets I'll probably just use on scorecasts or something speculative.

Dead heat rules means that if there are two people on the same, your bet wins still but the stake is divided by the number of people on the same. eg, if Costa and Van Perie both came top with 20 goals, you put £20 win on Costa, you'd get paid out at £10 on Costa. Its not quite the same as half odds as you don't get your full stake back if there is a dead heat.

Totesport are doing a similar offer but their's is quite poor. You have to bet a minimum of £20 but on win singles only. You get a £5 everytime your player scores 2 or more in a game. This is no where near as lucrative. Even Sturridge and Toure who came 2nd and 3rd last season only would have given out £10 in free bets each. Bet with Paddypower all the way if you are doing season long goal scorers.