I go this email from Paddypower the other day. Basically, the offer is
Here's the deal…Place a £20 bet on the Premier League Top Goalscorer and every time he scores we'll give you a £2 free bet.
The terms are
PL Top Goalscorer Offer:
- Place a GBP/EUR20 bet on a player in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market and get a GBP/EUR2 free bet every time he scores.
- Applies to bets placed Online, Mobile, iPad, Text and PP Messenger; does not apply to bets placed via Dial-A-Bet.
- Applies to bets placed on Premier League 2014-15 Top Goalscorer market only. Applies to bets placed from 12am Friday 1st August until 12:25pm on Saturday 16th August.
- Qualifying bet must be GBP/EUR20 or more on a single player, either GBP/EUR20 win or GBP/EUR10 each-way.
- Maximum GBP/EUR2 free bet per selection per Premier League goal scored.
- Own goals do not count.
- Customers who use Cash Out on their original Top Goalscorer bet will no longer be valid for Free Bets when their selection scores.
- Free bet can be placed on any sport and are valid for 7 days.
- Free bet stake not returned.
- Free bets will be credited on a weekly basis, by 12pm every Monday.
- To qualify for ongoing free bets, customers must have staked at least GBP/EUR10 in actual, non-free bet, sportsbook stakes in the 30 days prior to qualifying.
- A customer will be able to claim a maximum of GBP/EUR10 in free bets per week, Monday to Sunday.
Paddy Power reserves the right, at its discretion, to withdraw this promotion from certain customers and to change the terms or availability of this offer at any time.
- Premier League/OPTA will be used for settlement purposes.
- Paddy Power football rules apply.
My bold there. Each way goal scorers count. That makes it better value. You have to bet with them regularly to get the free bets. Not a problem for me but some people might have that problem.
I think this offer is actually worth it. Your goal scorer needs to score 10 and you are even on the free bets. Looking at last seasons top goal scorers, the top 15 all scored more than 10. These were
Luis Suarez (Liverpool) 31
Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool) 22
Yaya Toure (Man City) 20
Sergio Aguero (Man City) 17
Wayne Rooney (Man Utd) 17
Olivier Giroud (Arsenal) 16
Wilfried Bony (Swansea) 15
Edin Dzeko (Man City) 15
Romelu Lukaku (Everton) 15
Eden Hazard (Chelsea) 14
Jay Rodriguez (Southampton) 14
Rickie Lambert (Southampton) 13
Steven Gerrard (Liverpool) 12
Robin van Persie (Man Utd) 12
Christian Benteke (Aston Villa) 10
Aaron Ramsey (Arsenal) 10
So really you are looking at backing one of the strikers for the big 4/5 teams. Looking at the current top 15 favourites, they all should get 10 goals so you get all your money back as free bets, plus have the chance to win the bet.
I am going to go for Costa. If Mourinho plays a lone striker its likely to be him. I have great expectations for Chelsea this year so he should score a few. He was rubbish in the World Cup but I have faith in him.
My other bet is going to be Sanchez, he impressed me at the World Cup and scored 19 from 34 appearances at Barcelona last season. At 16/1 that'll pay out nicely each way.
Nice bonus that each way pays 4 places. I am expecting to at least get back all my stake in free bets over the season. The free £2 bets I'll probably just use on scorecasts or something speculative.
Dead heat rules means that if there are two people on the same, your bet wins still but the stake is divided by the number of people on the same. eg, if Costa and Van Perie both came top with 20 goals, you put £20 win on Costa, you'd get paid out at £10 on Costa. Its not quite the same as half odds as you don't get your full stake back if there is a dead heat.
Totesport are doing a similar offer but their's is quite poor. You have to bet a minimum of £20 but on win singles only. You get a £5 everytime your player scores 2 or more in a game. This is no where near as lucrative. Even Sturridge and Toure who came 2nd and 3rd last season only would have given out £10 in free bets each. Bet with Paddypower all the way if you are doing season long goal scorers.